EDITORIAL

Retaining power, it is often said, is more difficult than regaining it. The Congress and its allies have confirmed their continuing sway on the electorate in three states, of which there was much at stake in at least two of them namely, Maharashtra and Haryana. That they could romp home despite having made chief ministerial changes thrice during the five-year tenure of the Assembly in the key state of Maharashtra speaks of the mood of the electorate. However, the victories lack the credibility associated with victors. Especially, the Congress-NCP alliance in Maharashtra will not be justified in claiming the credit. It is a victory by default. Apparently, the opposition squandered the opportunity to cash upon the growing disillusionment of masses against spiraling prices of essentials. The also must thank the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) of Raj Thackeray for playing the spoiler for the parent Shiv Sena. It is evident from the preliminary analysis that Alliance’s voteshare went down considerably. They won because the rival National Democratic Alliance partners performed still worse.

Overall the results speak of serious decline of the NDA spearheaded by the BJP. Four months of bickering, wrangling, infighting and dissonance within the BJP have rid the party of all its sheen and torn to smithereens the halo of discipline. Ouster of veteran leader Jaswant Singh and party’s refusal to see reason on his book on Jinnah, severely dented its image. Former Rajasthan chief minister Vasundhara Raje’s intransigence have also contributed to the party’s misfortune. Outcome was therefore not on unexpected lines. It was foreseen. The BJP’s dismal score in Haryana bespeaks the party’s abysmal image in the Hindi heartland.

Overall, the message emanating from the verdict is that incumbency is not that big a burden in India if the rivals agree to cooperate with inefficiency, listlessness and ideological confusion in their own ranks. Congress record in all the three states was cheerless. Farmers suicides, 26/11 terror attacks and soaring prices (despite falling indices on inflation chart) were urging a change of power wielders. But the opposition could simply not utilize them to mount a challenge. Only Chautala’s party INLD could tap the popular disgust to some extent in Haryana, though not sufficient to wrest the power.

Some important conclusions need to be drawn from the latest elections. First BJP certainly is in serious need of introspection. Its alliance with Shiv Sena is sending wrong signals to cosmopolitan voters in Mumbai. It cannot afford to run with hare and hunt with the hounds. Second, succession war has led to a lot of degeneration of Shiv Sena during the lifetime of its founder Balasaheb Thackeray. The INLD has shown surprising resurgence in Haryana. Muslims, in absence of any alternative to Congress in Maharashtra have largely voted for it but Samajwadi Party has tapped their support in the City of Mumbai. Congress Government’s lethargic response to Srikrishna Commission Report is keeping the minorities away.

Evidently, complacency is setting within the Congress. Centre’s inability to check price rise is a clear indication that the traders, corporate and moneybags are holding the country to ransom. Popular frustration is at its peak. It is bound to spiral into mass resentment by the middle of 2010. Disenchanted politicians from the ranks of both Congress and the BJP might polarize around a third front to be in reckoning for a contest by the next general elections. It will be interesting to watch moves by people like Jaswant Singh, Vasundhara Raje, Yashwant Sinha and the likes.

‘Politics is a heady brew and Muslims are an inflammable stuff.’ Going by this axiom, the rise of a political party, i.e., Social Democratic Party, in the Hindi heartland should provide room for skepticism, if not pessimism. Muslim political outfits such as National Conference, Indian Union Muslim League and United Minority Front have operated on fringes and in states not contiguous to the Hindi belt and have done reasonably well for themselves. But the flavor there has mostly been regional. For historical reasons, Hindi heartland is also the hotbed of communal politics of most rabid kind. The very birth of a Muslim outfit is viewed as an incipient revolt against secular ideals of the State. Moreover, Muslim society in these states has not shown grassroots activism on any positive agenda since the Independence. Literacy is abysmal, educational attainments low and economy in shambles. Generally the Muslim masses are in a demoralized state. All this does not bode well for the success of any party eyeing their support. This however, should not discourage the founders from going ahead with the experiment. But it would be useful to be reminded that parties launched after prolonged social movements have better prospects of gaining acceptability from masses. Ideological work done by Ram Manohar Lohia, Jayaprakash Narain, Periyar Ramaswamy Naicker and Dr. Kanshi Ram provided a firm social bulwark for Janata Party, Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party or DMK to raise a political platform. Social movements help identify issues and crystallize opinion of masses. No such apprenticeship has been attempted in at least three key states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal on issues such as social classification, reservation, medium of education or even place of religion in a plural society. Clerics with diverse and divergent vested interest further muddy the political waters. This being the context, Social Democratic Party may find itself pitted against insurmountable odds in identifying the aspirations of the people it wants to represent, much less homogenize them. Yet, beginning had somehow to be made. And it has happened.