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There was a massive shift of Muslim votes in municipal elections held in 10 cities across Maharashtra recently.
An analysis of the results of the municipal elections held in 10 cities across Maharashtra shows that the Sena-BJP combine fared poorly compared with the alliance’s performance five years ago. This suggests that the Congress and the NCP had a good chance of winning the BMC, if they had put up a united fight. It is widely recognised that the two parties won the Assembly elections in 2004 primarily because of their unity.
The two parties lost their chance to wrest the BMC from the Shiv Sena-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) combine, which has held it for 10 years. Of the 227 seats, the NCP won 14, the Congress, 73, the Sena, 83 and the BJP, 28. In the last BMC elections, the Sena and the BJP won 104 and 36 seats, respectively, getting a clear majority
It now transpires that the Muslim turnout in Mumbai was significantly below the city average of between 48 and 50 per cent. Normally, Muslims vote enthusiastically in very large numbers. This high turnout has helped the community develop a strategic muscle, far in excess of its numbers.
The question is: why did so many Muslims choose to stay at home, except where the Samajwadi Party was a serious contender? The ‘Muslim vote’ was also consciously wooed, especially by the Congress. Thus, for the Congress, there is more to the defeat in the recent municipal polls. A massive shift of Muslim and Dalit votes in Mumbai in particular, and Maharashtra in general, will be a real cause of concern for the party ahead of the crucial electoral battle in Uttar Pradesh.
The Congress’ loss has turned out to be the Samajwadi Party’s gain. Other than Mulayam Singh Yadav-Amar Singh duo, Mayawati’s Bahujan Samajwadi Party is another force to reckon with as it has managed to make inroads into the Congress Muslim vote bank in Maharashtra. “It’s certainly ominous for Uttar Pradesh,” a top Congress leader admitted.
The SP has scored a double-digit success, increasing its seats in the BMC from four to 10. With 10 seats, the SP has proved that it is still a formidable challenge to the Congress when it comes to winning Muslim votes.
What’s worse for the Congress, the SP has literally swept off all wards in Mumbai north-east constituency, long considered a Congress strong-hold and home to Gurudas Kamat, MP, and the chief of Mumbai Congress. The high-profile Kamat could not even come to the rescue of his close confidant and president of the district Congress, Velu Swami Naidu.
More surprising is the Congress’ loss in four wards in Govandi, a Muslim-dominated suburb. All four went to the SP. For the ruling party, another telling defeat has come from Behrampada in Bandra, a Congress bastion till the other day, has quietly slipped into the SP camp. This ward forms part of the constituency represented by the late Sunil Dutt, and now his daughter Priya, and has always stood by the Congress.
As if that is not enough, the SP, the main challenger for the Congress in UP has bagged five seats in neighbouring Thane as well. The ever-expanding city, on the outskirts of Mumbai, has a sizeable Muslim population. Here too, the Congress failed to hold on to its once loyal vote bank
The current elections were unique from the Muslim perspective, as for the first time in the Muslim constituency, the local issues were the focus instead of ideology. Faced with crumbling civic services, candi-dates in minority dominated pockets across Mumbai endorsed a line of campaigning that was poignant as well as practical: to end backwardness of the community, starting with addressing civic living conditions.
Thus in Muslim dominated constituencies, independent candidates and third front won 23 seats. This is seen as the result of Muslim voters preferring them for the local issues rather than ideology.
While local residents’ interests include better living quarters, better infrastructure in the Urdu-medium civic schools, improved traffic management and sanitation, there is also the question of what the Muslim voter wants. And that is why Maulana Khalid Ashraf, head of the powerful Dar-ul-uloom Imdadiya starts with some facts: “The Sachar Committee has pointed out that in government services and jobs, the Muslims fare worse than even the Dalits, with hardly a 2 or 3 per cent share,” he says. “It is to help raise these communities from this backwardness, that we supported the Third Front constituting SP and RPI.”
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