Bangalore: Thanks to the disarray within Congress and hereditary nature of the leadership of Janata Dal Secular (JDS), the BJP has firmed up its grip on Karnataka. The Lok Sabha elections 2009 saw the BJP wresting 19 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats from the State and garnering as much as 42.3 per cent of popular votes cast. The Congress could claim just about six seats with its 38 per cent votes and the JDS was a poor third with three seats, two among which are occupied by JDS President Mr. Kumaraswamy and his father and former prime minister H. D. Devegowda. JDS’s tally of popular votes was 17 per cent.
The BJP registered a massive 8 per cent rise in its share of votes in the State since 2004 when it received 34 per cent votes. Statistics show that even if the JDS and the Congress had allied with each other, they could have just saved only five seats from going to the BJP. This means that the BJP is in a comfortable position to defeat the combined strength of the Opposition. Except the two constituencies of Bidar and Gulbarga in the north and seven constituencies in the extreme southern part of the states i.e., Kolar, Mysore, Chamrajnagar, Bangalore rural, Hassan, Mandya, and Chikballapur, the BJP has expanded its area of influence to the entire state. Lingayaths, the most dominant social group in the State are firmly behind the party. It has considerable following among Vokkaligas, Edigas and several other components that fall under OBCs.
Congress’s doddering leader-ship was no match for the BJP in the State. Moreover, the party did not heed the call for change in the leadership. As is known, the Congress in Karnataka has mainly thrived on the support of OBCs, Muslims, Dalits and Christians. All four OBC chief ministers came from the Congress. However, the party has of late begun to lose their support due to its failure to project any viable leaders from among these social classes. Siddramiah, the Kuruba leader who joined the party three years ago has been waiting on the margins since then. Dominant class hold on leadership does not allow him to play any significant role. Dalit leader Mallikarjuna Kharge is being shifted to the Centre. The Congress is still shy of projecting a Dalit for chief ministership. Jaffer Sharief was never considered within a striking distance of the top post despite a consistent record of electoral triumphs.
Every time the question of leadership crops up, the dominant classes like Lingayaths and Vokkaligas manipulate the situation to project leaders from their midst for the position. But a look at the current Congress wins in Lok Sabha would suggest that nearly all the Congress MPs have come from Dalits or OBCs. It is Congress nominated Dalit or OBC candidates who bagged the Kolar (Muniyappa), Chamrajnagar (Dhruvanarayan) and Mysore (Vishwanath) seats in the Cauvery region. At least two of them ie Chamrajnagar and Mysore went to Congress mainly due to the efforts of Siddramiah. Even Chikkaballapur seat came the Congress way mainly because of OBC support for Veerappa Moily who is the new MP from the seat. Gulbarga and Bidar were won by the redoubtable Kharge and Dharamsing (an OBC). No dominant caste candidate represents Congress in the Lok Sabha. Yet the party wants to subserve the interest of only two dominant castes.
None of the four minority candidates put up by the Congress could win the election. Sangliana, a Mizo Christian and former police commissioner of Bangalore lost to the BJP in Central Bangalore. Jaffer Sharief had his fiasco in Bangalore North seat at the hands of D. B. Chandregowda who recently defected to the BJP from Congress. Margret Alva lost her bid for Uttar Kannada seat in coastal region. Similarly, Saleem Ahmad had his waterloo in Haveri which had sizeable Muslim population. It is for the first time that Karnataka has no minority or Muslim member in the Lok Sabha. Sangliana stood a fair chance to win the Bangalore Central seat but presence of Zameer Ahmed, a transport tycoon and JDS MLA, in the race spoiled the prospects. The two candidates jointly polled over a lakh more votes than the winning BJP candidate P.C.Mohan. The Muslim Muttehada Mahaz, an apolitical body mobilizing the community’s support for secular and winnable candidates, failed miserably in calculating the consequences and proved itself highly partisan and communal by declaring its support for Zameer Ahmed instead of Sangliana. Even otherwise, the Mahaz and Milli Council could not do much to ensure win of any secular candidate as winnability this time clearly lay on the BJP side in a majority of constituencies even before the bugle for the polls were sounded. The Mahaz would do well by considering its strategy for the elections for the Bangalore Municipal Elections.
The only solace for the Muslims is that Mr. Raheem Khan of Congress won the Bidar Assembly seat defeating the BJP’s Suryakanth Nagmarpalli in the byelection held alongside the Parliamentary elections. The seat had fallen vacant when noted social worker and Congress leader Gurupadappa Nagmarpalli left the Congress to join the BJP. His son was rewarded with the BJP ticket. With this the number of Muslim MLAs in the Assembly has gone up to nine from eight.
Unless the Congress does some soul-searching and projects viable leaders, reversal of fortunes would not be a possibility.
 |
June 2009 |
