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Failure to regain its citadel for the second time in a row does not portend well for the Congress.
Karnataka has gone the BJP way. The saffron party has succeeded in making foray into power in the southern Dravidian territory for the first time. The performance—110 in the 224-member Assembly—is spectacular for the Bhartiya Janata Party which was humbled out of power last November by wily Devegowda and sons. Even the best of pollsters had exercised restraint in conceding a majority of seats for the BJP during the run up to elections. At best they could predict the largest party status for the BJP. They have all been proved wrong. Undoubtedly, this is a historic moment for the BJP as never before the Party was in striking distance of power in the southern state.
For most part of the electioneering the BJP was a frontrunner, having begun the work soon after the 7-day Yeddyurappa Government made its exit from the Vidhana Soudha. Though the BJP’s much trumpeted sympathy factor did not seem to enthuse people, the party’s hardworking cadre did make a difference. BJP made an early choice of candidates, had fewer rebels in the electoral arena and banked mainly on the popular contact its nominees could establish earlier than all else. Even as a motley group of Congressmen were arguing over leadership issues in Bangalore, BJP’s nominees were barnstorming, someone digging borewells, other fixing tubewells and yet others distributing seeds. The party even packed off hundreds of Muslims to Ajmer to have a ziarat of Khaja Moinuddin Chishty’s dargah. The bait worked well as the party could induct Muslim workers into the campaigning. But BJP’s forte lay in projecting its chief ministerial candidate, B. S. Yeddyurappa. This was precisely the undoing of the Congress. It had as many as nine leaders pining for the prime chair. In the end, the party paid a price for it.
The Congress may put up a brave face by claiming it won 15 more seats than last time (i.e., 65 in 2004) and even increased its vote share from 34 to 35 per cent. But the sad fact is that it has lost in the game of numbers, being beaten by the BJP by a handsome length. The party’s boastful claim of forging a social spectrum of OBCs, Muslims and the Dalits does not match with reality. The mandate makes its amply evident that its subaltern classes could not coalesce behind the party. In southern Karnataka, the Muslim votes were split between the Congress and the JDS. The reserved seats were almost equally divided between Congress (33) and BJP (34). Not to be ignored is the fact that Congress could not regain its erstwhile citadel for the second time in a row. It serves as a certain portent of the party’s failure to capture the popular imagination. But more poignant reminder from the verdict is the fact of absence of introspection within the Congress. No one in the Congress dares to blame the High Command for mismanaging the campaign.
As for the Janata Dal Secular, the major beneficiary of the coalition Government during the last 40 months, it is a sad verdict. The party has lost the ‘king-maker’s’ role with BJP gathering seats enough to give it a stable rule. The party’s strength has been cut to the half. Scenario down the road for the party is uncertain. It will be vulnerable to poaching, now that the party MLAs are bereft of hope of sharing the loaves and fishes of power.
As for greenhorn like the BSP, the party has failed to make any viable dent into the vote in Karnataka.
A major casualty of the verdict is Bangarappa family. Father and two sons, Kumar and Madhu, have been swept away under the saffron wave. Yeddyurappa has won handsomely in Shikaripur against Bangarappa. Filmstar and Congress MP, Ambareesh has been humbled in Mandya and former CM Dharamsing has lost for the first time in Jewargi in Gulbarga district (having won eight times in a row earlier).
Looked at from the standpoint of social harmony, BJP’s inroads into power in Karnataka does not portend well. The party did not field a single candidate from among the minority communities. It has on earlier occasions, spelled its designs to create a southern Ayodhya in Chikamagalur. The party has never clearly put aside its core Hindutva agenda and may pose danger to social fabric informed by the values of liberalism, pluralism and accommodation.
Modi factor did not work as well as it was expected. Sunilkumar, state president of Bajrang Dal from Karkala and Nagaraj Shetti, another firebrand leader of the BJP from Bantwala, were defeated. The Congress could not encash upon its loan waiver scheme as information did not reach the grassroots level.
BJP’s victory is also a pointer for the Muslim minority in Karnataka. Simple poll-eve appeals to vote the secular, winnable candidates do not work. The Karnataka Muslim Muttehada Mahaz has used the strategy for too long and needs a thorough relook. People in their anti-incumbency mood look for stable alternatives rather than secular ones. The BJP was a prime claimant for the slot as it was the only party which did not rule during the last four years in the State. Why should not the majority experiment with it? Why should they bother about only sensitivities of the minorities? Even the Muslim representation has gone up by just one, from seven to eight MLAs, this time. Muslims would need to align their aspirations somewhere along the mainstream.
Similarly, the vote for the BJP need not essentially be construed as a vote for the Hindutva. Projection of a Lingayath leader by the BJP did wonders in winning over a powerful community which has its hands on too many levers of powers such as bureaucracy, academia, industry, trade, media et al. Poll eve fiats would therefore not suffice. Muslim community would need empowerment through education. Mere sentiments would not work. It needs to emerge as a powerful community, rather than merely looking for solidarity on the basis of faith.
This point gets reinforced further by Congress’ failure to project Dalit leader Mallikarjuna Kharge about whom the Congress was certain to put him in the CM’s chair in the event of its victory. Yet Congress could not project him as he came from a powerless community like Dalits. What it ultimately boils down to is that key to empowerment does not lie merely in the ballot box.
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